Wednesday, October 17, 2007

So Much for Global Warming

With an accuracy rate only in the high teen-percentiles, why should we ever listen to weatherman Al Gore? When he, nor they cannot even predict this year's weather, how can he be any good at a 50-year forecast? Here's just a friendly reminder of the recent threats, dangers of "Global Warming":

Very Active 2007 Hurricane Season Predicted

Science Daily

(April 3, 2007)— The U.S. Atlantic basin will likely experience a very active hurricane season, the Colorado State University forecast team announced today, increasing its earlier prediction for the 2007 hurricane season.

The team's forecast now anticipates 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of the 17 storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those nine, five are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

No hurricanes made landfall along the U.S. coastline in 2006. The 2006 season witnessed a total of 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The 2005 season, considered unusual by the Colorado State forecast team, witnessed 27 named storms, 15 hurricanes and seven intense hurricanes. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

"We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons," said Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State hurricane forecast team. "Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 74 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent.

The hurricane forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2007 will be 185 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2005 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 275 percent of the average season.

The hurricane forecast team reiterated its probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil:

A 74 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2007 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).

A 50 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent)

A 49 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).
The team also predicted above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

On August 3, 2007, Klotzbach's team lowered their season estimate to 15 named storms, with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. They noted that conditions had become slightly less favorable for storms than they were earlier in the year. Sea surface temperature anomalies were cooler, and there were several incidences of Saharan Air Layer outbreaks. ENSO conditions were also noted to have been slightly cooler.

On August 9, 2007, the NOAA revised their season estimate slightly downwards to 13–16 named storms, with 7–9 becoming hurricanes and 3–5 becoming major hurricanes. However, they reaffirmed their call for an above-average season. They attributed the increase in confidence of an above-average season to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as well as an updated forecast that La Niña conditions were likely during the peak of the season.

On September 4, 2007, Klotzbach's team lowered their season estimate to 15 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes.

On October 2, 2007, Klotzbach's team adapted their season estimate to 14 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes. The estimate of 7 hurricanes assumes that Karen was a hurricane. She wasn't.

Man, wouldn't it be great if everyone could revise their prior estimates like this bunch does, without fear of dismissal? Eventually, they will "predict" the exact number of storms, hurricanes, and major storms. After the fact. With hind sight.

Keep going Klotsback! Eventually you will hit the right numbers.

That way, they are always accurate. But the main stream media will continue to tout their accuracy when reporting on next season's storms, without citing thier poor predictions, circa November 2, each yr. In reality, they are never accurate. They don't know. And they are the experts!

A climatologist, he ain't. A meteorologist, he ain't. A respected former Vice President, he ain't. Portraying Chicken Little, ranting about the 'sky falling', he's finding his niche, finally.
And even that's putting it nicely...


Redstater said...

good one mal, ... One of my favorite National Geographic covers (yes I keep it in the bathroom) was from late in 2005 and has a big hurricane on the cover with the words..
"Killer Hurricanes, NO END IN SIGHT" and of course blames global warming and Bush.

The Localmalcontent said...

Funny how most 'National Geographic' magazines end up in the library. Where they belong, with poor stories like that one.